Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Oct, 07:03 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia launches a military offensive to control any part of a NATO country by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This includes hybrid operations by unmarked personnel if they are confirmed Russian and aim for de facto control. Readers often mistake the deadline or ignore that grey zone tactics count if they meet the control criteria.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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