Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Implied probability 4%
Total volume$1.3M
Liquidity$30k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 09:35 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 03:16 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 02:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 00:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 23:14 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 22:41 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 18:45 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 19:12 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 15:42 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 14:22 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 13:39 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 12:56 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 11:31 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 10:58 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Sept, 08:37 UTC | 5% |
| 20 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Sept, 18:32 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Sept, 15:07 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 18:03 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 15:30 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 11:43 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 11:11 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 10:27 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 09:25 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 2% |
| 17 Sept, 14:38 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
Ukraine must officially become a full member of NATO by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to Yes. The outcome depends on verification from the official NATO website or other credible sources. Readers often mistake the deadline date or assume that joining the EU counts as joining NATO.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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