Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 91% |
| 25 Sept, 16:04 UTC | 91% |
| 25 Sept, 15:43 UTC | 91% |
| 25 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 91% |
| 25 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 91% |
| 25 Sept, 14:25 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 12:25 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 08:26 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 07:49 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 06:10 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 05:56 UTC | 92% |
| 25 Sept, 05:17 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 18:09 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 17:34 UTC | 92% |
| 24 Sept, 17:09 UTC | 91% |
| 24 Sept, 14:18 UTC | 90% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 90% |
| 24 Sept, 09:43 UTC | 90% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 90% |
| 24 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 90% |
| 24 Sept, 08:16 UTC | 90% |
| 24 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 89% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 89% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 89% |
| 24 Sept, 02:31 UTC | 89% |
| 24 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 89% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 23:02 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 20:34 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 88% |
| 23 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 89% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 93% |
| 23 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 94% |
| 23 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 93% |
| 22 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 94% |
| 21 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 85% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if any Anthropic Claude model reaches at least 55% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if no such score is achieved within that deadline. Readers often mistake the linked news story about cost reductions as relevant evidence, but only the official HLE leaderboard determines the result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 91%
- No 9%
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