Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
Why it moved: +8 points at 23:21 UTC, after theinformation.com: Anthropic releases cheaper model in first launch since slowdown calls — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 22 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 94% |
| 21 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 85% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if any Anthropic Claude model reaches at least 55% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if no such score is achieved within that deadline. Readers often mistake the linked news story about cost reductions as relevant evidence, but only the official HLE leaderboard determines the result.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 94%
- No 7%
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