Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Implied probability 7%−1
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$18.5M
Liquidity$344k
Resolves7 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Sept, 00:49 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 08:39 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 20:45 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Sept, 09:29 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 07:12 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 04:56 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 04:23 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 8% |
| 23 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Sept, 04:54 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Sept, 11:10 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Sept, 08:14 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 21:03 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 20:48 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Sept, 05:09 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 17:29 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 10:00 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 06:11 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 02:34 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 23:12 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 22:15 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 16:55 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 15:14 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome depends on which candidate wins the November 7, 2028 election. The market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same person. Readers often mistake the inauguration date as the only deadline, but the result relies on these three specific news sources calling the winner first.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%
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