Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 17:26 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 72% |
| 29 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 11:05 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 00:41 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 65% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 10:48 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 66% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 17:43 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 71% |
| 27 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 72% |
| 27 Oct, 14:29 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 12:42 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 11:51 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Oct, 09:44 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 08:54 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 67% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves based on whether Israel launches aerial strikes into the soil of four or more distinct countries during 2026. Strikes must hit ground territory, exclude Israeli-controlled areas like the West Bank and Gaza, and ignore intercepted missiles or ground operations. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2025 or assume strikes within occupied territories count toward the total.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 70%
- No 30%
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