Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 27?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 17:15 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 70% |
| 24 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 68% |
| 24 Oct, 13:36 UTC | 66% |
| 24 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 68% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 68% |
| 24 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 67% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 72% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 65% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 68% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 70% |
| 23 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 67% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia’s armed forces launch a qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike that directly hits Yemen on October 27, Yemen Standard Time. It resolves to No if no such strike occurs, if the action is carried out by proxies, or if munitions are intercepted before impact. Readers often mistake threats, announcements, or strikes by allied coalition partners for a qualifying Saudi action.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 75%
- No 26%
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