Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?
The market favoured Yes at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$247k
Liquidity$0
Resolved15 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 8 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 100% |
| 8 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 100% |
| 8 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 100% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 16:37 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 98% |
| 7 Oct, 10:29 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 97% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 97% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 97% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 07:45 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 98% |
| 6 Oct, 03:55 UTC | 97% |
| 6 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 17:00 UTC | 100% |
| 5 Oct, 16:40 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 99% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if A'ja Wilson is officially named the 2026 WNBA MVP by the league. It resolves to "No" if any other player wins the award or if no winner is declared within the specified timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the announcement date rather than the season's end, and they may overlook that a tie breaks alphabetically by last name.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →