Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
Why it moved: −7 points at 01:54 UTC, after Times of India: US launches 'secret' strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island as peace talks teeter along — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 49% |
| 3 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Nov, 04:08 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Nov, 03:54 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 03:19 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 47% |
| 2 Nov, 01:39 UTC | 54% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
For the market to resolve to "Yes," Iran must launch an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly at Saudi Arabia's territory before December 31, 2026, according to Arabia Standard Time. The attack must be confirmed as originating from Iranian forces, not proxy groups like Hezbollah or the Houthis, and it must involve munitions that are actually fired, regardless of whether they are intercepted.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 49%
- No 52%
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