Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?
The market favoured No at 65% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$119k
Total volume$142k
Liquidity$81k
Resolved20 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 14 Sept, 01:32 UTC | 0% |
| 13 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 0% |
| 13 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 9% |
| 13 Sept, 13:59 UTC | 8% |
| 13 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Sept, 12:59 UTC | 34% |
| 13 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 34% |
| 13 Sept, 10:36 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Sept, 07:38 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Sept, 05:48 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Sept, 03:58 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Sept, 03:12 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Sept, 02:52 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Sept, 01:29 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Sept, 00:29 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 35% |
| 12 Sept, 19:45 UTC | 36% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 13% |
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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