Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?
Implied probability 8%
24-hour volume$20
Total volume$41k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 20 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 8% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 7% |
| 18 Sept, 01:10 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 22:21 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 21:41 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 20:59 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 19:57 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 17:55 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 17:20 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Sept, 15:32 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Sept, 14:51 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 12:02 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 09:23 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 08:44 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 07:34 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 07:02 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 06:31 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Sept, 05:45 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Sept, 05:26 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 04:04 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 6% |
| 17 Sept, 03:24 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Sept, 01:42 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Sept, 01:05 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Sept, 21:45 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 7% |
| 16 Sept, 17:08 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Sept, 17:08 UTC | 16% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Google ranks third among AI labs on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. It resolves to No if Google does not hold that specific third-place position at that exact time. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day or assume any high ranking counts instead of strictly third place.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 8%
- No 93%
Trade this market on Polymarket →