Will the PCQ win 17 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
Why it moved: −11 points at 23:29 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Quebec votes as separatist surge poses test for Canada PM — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 40% |
| 5 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Oct, 23:29 UTC | 38% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 49% |
| 5 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 50% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Parti conservateur du Québec wins 17 or more seats in the October 5, 2026 election. The No outcome applies if they win fewer than 17 seats. Readers often mistake post-election changes like resignations or by-elections as counting toward the total, but only the initial results from Élections Québec matter.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 40%
- No 60%
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