Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 21:00 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 03:28 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. If no decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the value at that time determines the outcome. Readers often mistake the timing, thinking the rate must be set during the meeting rather than using the final official figure if the deadline passes.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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