Will Democrats win 9 or more House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections?
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 35% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 34% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 44% |
| 4 Nov, 00:07 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Nov, 00:07 UTC | 49% |
What counts
Democrats must win nine or more regular House seats in Virginia during the 2026 midterm election for the Yes outcome to trigger. Special elections do not count toward this total, and independent members only count if they formally caucus with a party before Election Day. Readers often mistake the linked story about Senator Mark Warner as relevant, but this market tracks only House results, not Senate races.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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