Will the National Party win 35-39 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Why it moved: +4 points at 07:41 UTC, after The Guardian: NZ election 2026 live results: count on as National and Labour battle it out in knife-edge New Zealand poll — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 46% |
| 7 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 07:28 UTC | 41% |
| 6 Nov, 07:00 UTC | 42% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the National Party wins between 35 and 39 seats in the 2026 election, while No covers all other seat counts. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the result, using official data from the New Zealand Electoral Commission only if ambiguity arises.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 46%
- No 55%
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