Will Lionel Messi finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Implied probability 9%+3
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$7k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 11% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 08:58 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 05:46 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 01:27 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 20:26 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 06:48 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 00:36 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 22:19 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 11:57 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 11:12 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 15:41 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lionel Messi is ranked third in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or, and No otherwise. The final ranking must come from France Football or UEFA by November 2, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the ceremony date of October 26 for the resolution deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%
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