Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 01:48 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 22:32 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 17:26 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 08:13 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 02:53 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 21:22 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 09:01 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 06:34 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 20:49 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Congress passes and the President signs a formal declaration of war against Iran before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Military actions, executive orders, or authorizations for the use of force do not count toward this outcome. Readers often mistake military strikes or presidential statements for an official declaration of war.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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