Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?
Why it moved: −4 points at 12:59 UTC, after ABC News: Russia and Ukraine trade airstrikes as reconstruction and security talks resume — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 5 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 21% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Nov, 13:52 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Nov, 13:07 UTC | 19% |
| 5 Nov, 12:59 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 23% |
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" only if both Russia and Ukraine officially agree to a general suspension of direct military fighting that lasts for ten continuous days by March 31, 2027. The agreement must be confirmed by credible reporting or official announcements from both sides, excluding temporary pauses or localized truces.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 80%
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Stories on this market
- Russian strikes on Ukraine kill dozens as US announces peace talks world
- Melania Trump Hosts Russian and Ukrainian Officials at White House to Celebrate Oleshky Ceasefire world
- Europe Weighs Ukraine Next Steps as Poland Boosts Border Security world
- Ukraine Reports Record Russian Troop Losses Since 2022 Invasion world