Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 59% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 59% |
| 21 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 60% |
| 21 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Oct, 23:07 UTC | 60% |
| 20 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 60% |
| 20 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 16:27 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Oct, 15:16 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 66% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 66% |
| 19 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 62% |
| 18 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 61% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia’s armed forces launch an air or surface-to-surface strike that directly hits Yemen's land or internal waters on October 29. It resolves to No if no such strike occurs, if the action involves proxies, or if munitions are intercepted before impact. Readers often mistake threats, announcements, or strikes by other coalition members for a qualifying Saudi action.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 59%
- No 41%
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