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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Resolved: Yes 34d ago

The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$29k
Total volume$689k
Liquidity$17k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?
0%50%100%100%25 Sept, 05:56 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
30 Sept, 19:53 UTC100%
30 Sept, 13:38 UTC100%
29 Sept, 16:39 UTC100%
28 Sept, 18:54 UTC100%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC100%
28 Sept, 12:40 UTC100%
28 Sept, 12:11 UTC100%
28 Sept, 03:26 UTC100%
27 Sept, 23:37 UTC100%
27 Sept, 20:22 UTC100%
27 Sept, 18:58 UTC100%
27 Sept, 18:06 UTC100%
27 Sept, 17:31 UTC100%
27 Sept, 12:39 UTC100%
27 Sept, 11:54 UTC100%
27 Sept, 08:29 UTC100%
27 Sept, 04:18 UTC100%
27 Sept, 00:34 UTC100%
26 Sept, 20:44 UTC100%
26 Sept, 18:26 UTC100%
26 Sept, 15:31 UTC100%
26 Sept, 15:23 UTC99%
26 Sept, 14:10 UTC99%
26 Sept, 13:06 UTC99%
26 Sept, 12:49 UTC99%
26 Sept, 10:50 UTC100%
26 Sept, 09:57 UTC100%
26 Sept, 09:24 UTC100%
26 Sept, 08:38 UTC99%
26 Sept, 08:22 UTC99%
26 Sept, 06:55 UTC99%
26 Sept, 06:25 UTC100%
26 Sept, 05:24 UTC100%
26 Sept, 04:52 UTC99%
26 Sept, 03:46 UTC99%
26 Sept, 03:16 UTC99%
26 Sept, 02:32 UTC99%
26 Sept, 02:24 UTC99%
26 Sept, 01:54 UTC99%
26 Sept, 00:33 UTC99%
25 Sept, 15:35 UTC100%
25 Sept, 12:11 UTC100%
25 Sept, 11:29 UTC100%
25 Sept, 07:07 UTC100%
25 Sept, 06:30 UTC100%
25 Sept, 06:23 UTC99%
25 Sept, 05:56 UTC99%

What counts

NVIDIA must hold the highest global market capitalization at the end of trading on September 30, 2026, to trigger the Yes outcome. Any other company taking that lead by the deadline results in a No outcome. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the deciding factor, but the resolution relies solely on verified financial data from credible reporting sources.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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