Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?
The market favoured No at 95% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$612
Total volume$7k
Liquidity$41k
Resolved5 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 11:47 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 5% |
What counts
The Yes outcome requires Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the Brazilian presidential election, Benjamin Netanyahu to become Israel's next Prime Minister, and Republicans to control the US Senate. The No outcome applies if any of these three specific conditions fails to occur.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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