Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$50
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves30 Jun 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 16:33 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 09:13 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 08:36 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 07:54 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 07:25 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 06:50 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 04:56 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 04:23 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 03:52 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 01:58 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 00:55 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Sept, 00:09 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 22:20 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 16:27 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 13:56 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 11:13 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 05:48 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Sept, 02:57 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 21:26 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 13:23 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 11:50 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 08:48 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 07:09 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 06:45 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 06:21 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 05:11 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 04:14 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 04:14 UTC | 8% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a new Grok model version 4.7 or higher appears on the Arena.AI leaderboard with a score of at least 1490 at 12:00 PM ET the day after its first listing. The outcome depends solely on the specific score shown in the Text Arena Overall column, excluding any models labeled AutoEval.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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