Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?
Why it moved: −3 points at 04:14 UTC, after marktechpost.com: SpaceXAI Releases Grok 4.7: A Larger Base Model at the Same $2/$6 Price as Grok 4.6 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 05:11 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Sept, 04:14 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Sept, 04:14 UTC | 8% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a new Grok model version 4.7 or higher appears on the Arena.AI leaderboard with a score of at least 1490 at 12:00 PM ET the day after its first listing. The outcome depends solely on the specific score shown in the Text Arena Overall column, excluding any models labeled AutoEval.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%
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