Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
Implied probability 98%
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 09:15 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 08:50 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 07:30 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 07:24 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 05:59 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 04:54 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 04:27 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 01:13 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 00:39 UTC | 98% |
| 10 Oct, 00:19 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 98% |
| 9 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 98% |
| 8 Oct, 17:03 UTC | 98% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if 1 to 3 Atlantic storms reach hurricane status between now and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if fewer than 1 or more than 3 hurricanes occur in that period. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the calendar year rather than the specific date and time listed.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 98%
- No 2%
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