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Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

Implied probability 38%−2
24-hour volume$19
Total volume$55k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
0%50%100%38%7 Oct, 07:20 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now38%
12 Oct, 22:27 UTC38%
12 Oct, 21:26 UTC39%
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12 Oct, 18:40 UTC33%
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10 Oct, 20:41 UTC41%
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10 Oct, 13:28 UTC39%
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10 Oct, 09:28 UTC38%
10 Oct, 08:50 UTC35%
9 Oct, 18:35 UTC47%
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7 Oct, 15:03 UTC47%
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7 Oct, 13:05 UTC47%
7 Oct, 07:20 UTC46%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if an OpenAI model scores 60% or higher on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The score must appear as “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent on the official leaderboard at agi.safe.ai. Readers often mistake other accuracy metrics or news reports for the final resolution data.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 38%
  • No 63%

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