Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 22% |
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What counts
Marco Rubio must be physically present and actively participate in a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting between US and Iran officials for the 'Yes' outcome. The event must occur by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET and be publicly acknowledged or reported by credible media. Readers often mistake technical talks or brief greetings for qualifying diplomacy, but only deliberate senior-level negotiations count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 9%
- No 91%
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