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Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

Implied probability 1%−2
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$208k
Liquidity$15k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
How the odds moved · Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
0%50%100%1%23 Sept, 01:59 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now1%
29 Sept, 18:05 UTC1%
29 Sept, 16:54 UTC1%
29 Sept, 13:27 UTC1%
29 Sept, 12:48 UTC2%
29 Sept, 06:54 UTC1%
29 Sept, 06:22 UTC1%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC1%
28 Sept, 18:54 UTC3%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC4%
28 Sept, 11:36 UTC3%
28 Sept, 11:26 UTC3%
28 Sept, 10:53 UTC3%
28 Sept, 10:28 UTC3%
28 Sept, 09:57 UTC3%
28 Sept, 09:12 UTC3%
28 Sept, 08:55 UTC2%
28 Sept, 07:51 UTC2%
28 Sept, 07:26 UTC2%
28 Sept, 06:59 UTC3%
28 Sept, 06:24 UTC2%
28 Sept, 05:28 UTC3%
28 Sept, 04:46 UTC3%
28 Sept, 04:07 UTC3%
28 Sept, 03:57 UTC3%
28 Sept, 02:41 UTC3%
28 Sept, 02:25 UTC3%
28 Sept, 01:28 UTC3%
27 Sept, 22:24 UTC5%
27 Sept, 20:36 UTC5%
27 Sept, 20:22 UTC5%
27 Sept, 19:59 UTC5%
27 Sept, 18:51 UTC5%
27 Sept, 18:13 UTC5%
27 Sept, 17:31 UTC5%
27 Sept, 16:59 UTC6%
27 Sept, 16:16 UTC6%
27 Sept, 15:24 UTC6%
27 Sept, 14:03 UTC7%
27 Sept, 13:55 UTC7%
27 Sept, 13:22 UTC7%
27 Sept, 12:39 UTC7%
27 Sept, 12:14 UTC7%
27 Sept, 11:54 UTC7%
27 Sept, 11:06 UTC7%
27 Sept, 09:50 UTC7%
27 Sept, 09:02 UTC8%
27 Sept, 08:42 UTC8%
27 Sept, 08:22 UTC7%
27 Sept, 07:55 UTC7%
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27 Sept, 06:47 UTC7%
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27 Sept, 05:57 UTC7%
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27 Sept, 03:26 UTC7%
27 Sept, 02:39 UTC8%
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27 Sept, 00:50 UTC8%
26 Sept, 23:17 UTC10%
26 Sept, 22:14 UTC9%
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26 Sept, 20:36 UTC10%
26 Sept, 20:20 UTC9%
26 Sept, 19:56 UTC10%
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26 Sept, 16:48 UTC9%
26 Sept, 16:03 UTC15%
26 Sept, 15:56 UTC14%
26 Sept, 15:23 UTC9%
26 Sept, 14:37 UTC8%
26 Sept, 14:10 UTC8%
26 Sept, 13:50 UTC10%
26 Sept, 13:06 UTC5%
26 Sept, 12:58 UTC6%
26 Sept, 12:22 UTC8%
26 Sept, 11:38 UTC8%
26 Sept, 11:29 UTC8%
26 Sept, 10:50 UTC7%
26 Sept, 10:13 UTC7%
26 Sept, 09:57 UTC7%
26 Sept, 09:24 UTC6%
26 Sept, 08:38 UTC5%
26 Sept, 08:22 UTC6%
26 Sept, 06:48 UTC7%
26 Sept, 06:16 UTC6%
26 Sept, 05:24 UTC5%
26 Sept, 04:45 UTC6%
26 Sept, 02:32 UTC7%
26 Sept, 02:24 UTC9%
26 Sept, 01:54 UTC16%
25 Sept, 14:46 UTC93%
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25 Sept, 08:26 UTC91%
25 Sept, 07:07 UTC91%
25 Sept, 02:33 UTC91%
24 Sept, 23:14 UTC92%
24 Sept, 20:24 UTC93%
24 Sept, 15:25 UTC93%
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24 Sept, 11:26 UTC92%
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24 Sept, 09:29 UTC91%
24 Sept, 08:29 UTC93%
24 Sept, 05:47 UTC91%
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24 Sept, 03:00 UTC92%
24 Sept, 02:44 UTC92%
24 Sept, 01:01 UTC90%
23 Sept, 22:48 UTC91%
23 Sept, 20:55 UTC90%
23 Sept, 15:54 UTC91%
23 Sept, 15:03 UTC90%
23 Sept, 14:15 UTC91%
23 Sept, 12:14 UTC93%
23 Sept, 11:51 UTC93%
23 Sept, 11:13 UTC90%
23 Sept, 09:57 UTC90%
23 Sept, 08:11 UTC90%
23 Sept, 07:59 UTC91%
23 Sept, 06:28 UTC89%
23 Sept, 04:42 UTC87%
23 Sept, 04:02 UTC91%
23 Sept, 03:22 UTC92%
23 Sept, 01:59 UTC91%

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What counts

The market resolves by checking the Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard on arena.ai at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The outcome is Yes if Alibaba owns the highest-ranked model among primarily Chinese companies listed in that specific ranking; otherwise, it is No.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 1%
  • No 99%

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