U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
Why it moved: +12 points at 17:56 UTC, after Fox News World: Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado makes surprise return home after nearly a year abroad — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 18:25 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 4% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Trump administration makes a direct, unqualified announcement recognizing Maria Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The recognition must confirm she holds primary executive authority, such as head of state or president. Readers often mistake supportive or implied statements for official recognition, but only direct declarations count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%
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