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France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability 14%−6
24-hour volume$223k
Total volume$284k
Liquidity$59k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

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What counts

A Yes outcome requires a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 to enter into effect by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This specific legal status must apply to any part of the French Republic, including overseas territories. Readers often mistake other emergency measures, such as a public health state of emergency or a state of siege, for the required declaration.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 14%
  • No 87%

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