Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Implied probability 7%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$825k
Liquidity$69k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 7% |
| 23 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 6% |
| 23 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 5% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 5% |
| 22 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 7% |
| 21 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 8% |
| 21 Oct, 00:22 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 09:04 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Ukraine agrees to cede territory to Russia in a publicly announced deal by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must involve the transfer of de facto military control or a formal concession, confirmed by an official announcement from either side or overwhelming consensus among credible news sources.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 94%
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