Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 53% |
| 28 Oct, 02:37 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 54% |
| 28 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Oct, 23:52 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Oct, 22:44 UTC | 53% |
| 27 Oct, 20:46 UTC | 54% |
| 27 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 53% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 53% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine mutually agree to suspend direct military engagement by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. This agreement must be officially announced by both governments or confirmed by credible reporting as a general pause in the conflict. Readers often mistake unilateral pauses, informal understandings, or agreements limited to specific locations for a valid ceasefire.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 53%
- No 47%
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