EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?
The market favoured No at 56% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$31k
Total volume$53k
Liquidity$26k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 100% |
| 29 Sept, 08:48 UTC | 100% |
| 29 Sept, 08:20 UTC | 98% |
| 29 Sept, 07:48 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 49% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 21:57 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 20:22 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 50% |
| 27 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 16:30 UTC | 50% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 51% |
| 27 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 53% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if an EU member state's government officially blames Russia for a new sabotage attack before October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The attribution must be a public statement by an authorized representative of that specific country, not by NATO, other nations, or anonymous officials.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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