India Tour of New Zealand T20s: New Zealand vs India
The market favoured India at 58% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: −71 points at 10:51 UTC, after Times of India: Pollard doesn't want to see 'yellows and reds', urges MI to put 'team above self' — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 0% |
| 24 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 83% |
| 24 Oct, 09:57 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 34% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 43% |
| 24 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 45% |
| 24 Oct, 00:04 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 46% |
| 23 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 44% |
| 23 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 43% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Oct, 04:02 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 42% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 38% |
| 22 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 37% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 35% |
| 22 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 11:00 UTC | 39% |
What counts
The market resolves to New Zealand if they win the scheduled T20 match, and to India if they win. A tied result with no tiebreaker or a canceled match results in a 50-50 split. Readers often mistake the linked story about the India-West Indies series for the relevant event, but this market applies only to the New Zealand vs India fixture.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- New Zealand 0%
- India 100%
View this market on Polymarket →