Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Implied probability 10%
24-hour volume$10
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 07:12 UTC | 10% |
| 4 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Meta’s AI model holds the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A tie for first place also counts as a win. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but only the specific Chatbot Arena leaderboard determines the outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 91%
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