Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2028 elections?
Why it moved: +3 points at 05:39 UTC, after Politico Congress: Democrats are on track to control Congress. What will they do with their power? — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 66% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Democratic Party holds a majority of voting seats in the House after the 2028 general election. The No outcome applies if another party holds that majority or if no party does and the first Speaker is not a Democrat.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 69%
- No 32%
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