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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability 44%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$16.0M
Liquidity$430k
Resolves8 Nov 2028
How the odds moved · Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%50%100%44%15 Oct, 12:37 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now44%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC44%
18 Oct, 23:43 UTC46%
18 Oct, 22:49 UTC46%
18 Oct, 22:07 UTC46%
18 Oct, 20:53 UTC47%
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17 Oct, 14:27 UTC48%
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17 Oct, 11:47 UTC48%
17 Oct, 10:34 UTC48%
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16 Oct, 14:08 UTC48%
16 Oct, 13:31 UTC48%
16 Oct, 12:49 UTC48%
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16 Oct, 08:34 UTC48%
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15 Oct, 13:52 UTC49%
15 Oct, 12:37 UTC49%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases, including any replacement of the nominee before election day. Readers often mistake the timing of the nomination for the election date or rely on unofficial polls instead of official party declarations.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 44%
  • No 56%

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