Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 7 Nov, 15:39 UTC | 14% |
| 5 Nov, 08:21 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 10:51 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 09:36 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 20:41 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 15:11 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 12:19 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 23:07 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Nov, 22:46 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Nov, 21:05 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Nov, 20:00 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 10:50 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the 2027 French presidential election, while No applies if he does not. The market resolves based on the official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior or a consensus of credible reporting. Readers often mistake the deadline for resolution, which is December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, rather than the election date itself.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 87%
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