Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
Implied probability 70%+1
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$581k
Liquidity$32k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 70% |
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What counts
The market resolves based on the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 FOMC meeting. If no decision is issued by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the value at that time determines the outcome. Readers often mistake the resolution source, but only official Federal Reserve information counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 70%
- No 30%
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