Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 03:28 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 12:57 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 10:16 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 09:48 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 02:44 UTC | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
Saudi Arabia must formally sign a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET for the market to resolve to Yes. The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Accords or their continuation. Readers often mistake general diplomatic progress or arms sales for a formal signing of the specific agreement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
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