Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 21:39 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 34% |
| 30 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 09:25 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Sept, 07:58 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 45% |
| 29 Sept, 08:34 UTC | 44% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 45% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Avengers: Doomsday earns more domestic revenue during its three-day opening weekend than any other film released in 2026. It resolves to No if another movie grosses more, or if a tie occurs and Avengers: Doomsday does not come first alphabetically. Readers often mistake the source of truth by relying on studio estimates instead of the final figures published on The Numbers website.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 63%
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