Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$54k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 18:14 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 09:52 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 09:04 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 05:45 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 04:13 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 02:36 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 01:08 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 20:42 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 07:33 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 07:10 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 12:04 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 06:59 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 04:07 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 03:50 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 01:36 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 01:28 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 21:43 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 20:43 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 20:22 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 19:33 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 19:20 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 16:16 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 15:52 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 07:07 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 04:31 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 02:39 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 09:49 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 23:22 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 22:02 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 20:53 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 14:32 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 13:18 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 7% |
| 25 Sept, 05:02 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 04:42 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 03:30 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 02:33 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 01:46 UTC | 8% |
| 25 Sept, 00:52 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 18:02 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 17:02 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 15:52 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 09:00 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 08:36 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 8% |
What counts
The market resolves by checking the Agent Arena Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The outcome is Yes if OpenAI owns the model ranked highest in the 'Models' filter; otherwise, it is No. Readers often mistake the deadline for midnight or assume any OpenAI product counts instead of only the top-ranked model on that specific leaderboard.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →