Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 30?
Implied probability 2%−2
24-hour volume$478
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 06:59 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 04:07 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 21:43 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 20:15 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 19:13 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 18:20 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 16:30 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 12:08 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 11:06 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 10:51 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 05:43 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 01:48 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 20:36 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 15:56 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 12:22 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 08:12 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 00:56 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 00:25 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 23:29 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 15:57 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 15:01 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 14:46 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 1% |
| 25 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Sept, 01:21 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 19:14 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 07:44 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 06:43 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 04:02 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 03:30 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 02:12 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 21:12 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 16:28 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 2% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Houthi military forces physically enter any part of Saudi Arabia by 11:59 PM ET on September 30. Bombardment, naval presence, or diplomatic visits do not count as entry. Readers often mistake missile strikes or official claims for actual ground entry.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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