Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?
The market favoured No at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$23k
Total volume$47k
Liquidity$26k
Resolved28 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 20:44 UTC | 0% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 15:26 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 14:56 UTC | 27% |
| 28 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 13:57 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Oct, 13:24 UTC | 32% |
| 28 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 25% |
| 28 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 10:48 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 24% |
| 28 Oct, 06:43 UTC | 22% |
| 28 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 23% |
| 28 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 22% |
| 27 Oct, 03:22 UTC | 23% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if zero members dissent on the Fed Funds Rate decision during the October 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting. The No outcome applies if one or more members dissent. Readers often mistake the press conference time for the resolution deadline; the market resolves when the official FOMC statement is issued.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →