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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?

Implied probability 99%+2
24-hour volume$109k
Total volume$204k
Liquidity$71k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
How the odds moved · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
0%50%100%99%29 Oct, 16:50 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now99%
1 Nov, 15:16 UTC99%
1 Nov, 14:37 UTC99%
1 Nov, 14:23 UTC99%
1 Nov, 13:32 UTC99%
1 Nov, 13:17 UTC98%
1 Nov, 12:55 UTC98%
1 Nov, 12:16 UTC98%
1 Nov, 11:04 UTC97%
1 Nov, 10:36 UTC98%
1 Nov, 10:28 UTC97%
1 Nov, 09:01 UTC97%
1 Nov, 08:54 UTC97%
1 Nov, 08:25 UTC97%
1 Nov, 07:31 UTC97%
1 Nov, 07:25 UTC97%
1 Nov, 06:57 UTC97%
1 Nov, 05:11 UTC97%
1 Nov, 02:50 UTC97%
1 Nov, 02:29 UTC97%
1 Nov, 00:21 UTC97%
31 Oct, 23:53 UTC97%
31 Oct, 23:17 UTC97%
31 Oct, 22:43 UTC97%
31 Oct, 22:28 UTC95%
31 Oct, 21:53 UTC96%
31 Oct, 21:10 UTC96%
31 Oct, 20:57 UTC96%
31 Oct, 19:32 UTC96%
31 Oct, 19:24 UTC96%
31 Oct, 18:55 UTC96%
31 Oct, 18:27 UTC96%
31 Oct, 17:49 UTC96%
31 Oct, 17:13 UTC96%
31 Oct, 16:43 UTC96%
31 Oct, 16:15 UTC97%
31 Oct, 15:59 UTC97%
31 Oct, 15:22 UTC97%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC97%
31 Oct, 14:16 UTC97%
31 Oct, 13:46 UTC96%
31 Oct, 13:16 UTC97%
31 Oct, 12:11 UTC97%
31 Oct, 11:21 UTC96%
31 Oct, 10:59 UTC97%
31 Oct, 10:13 UTC96%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC97%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC96%
31 Oct, 08:56 UTC95%
31 Oct, 08:28 UTC95%
31 Oct, 07:39 UTC95%
31 Oct, 06:36 UTC95%
31 Oct, 06:08 UTC95%
31 Oct, 04:43 UTC95%
31 Oct, 02:26 UTC94%
31 Oct, 01:46 UTC93%
31 Oct, 01:18 UTC95%
31 Oct, 00:57 UTC95%
31 Oct, 00:10 UTC95%
30 Oct, 23:55 UTC95%
30 Oct, 23:02 UTC93%
30 Oct, 22:47 UTC93%
30 Oct, 22:26 UTC93%
30 Oct, 21:24 UTC92%
30 Oct, 20:29 UTC92%
30 Oct, 18:37 UTC93%
30 Oct, 18:18 UTC93%
30 Oct, 16:10 UTC92%
30 Oct, 15:50 UTC93%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC92%
30 Oct, 14:58 UTC92%
30 Oct, 14:16 UTC93%
30 Oct, 13:50 UTC93%
30 Oct, 12:52 UTC92%
30 Oct, 12:24 UTC91%
30 Oct, 11:52 UTC90%
30 Oct, 11:24 UTC90%
30 Oct, 10:50 UTC90%
30 Oct, 10:13 UTC90%
30 Oct, 09:58 UTC90%
30 Oct, 09:29 UTC92%
30 Oct, 08:41 UTC92%
30 Oct, 07:28 UTC93%
30 Oct, 05:00 UTC93%
30 Oct, 04:43 UTC93%
30 Oct, 03:47 UTC93%
30 Oct, 03:09 UTC93%
30 Oct, 02:02 UTC93%
30 Oct, 01:55 UTC93%
30 Oct, 01:28 UTC93%
30 Oct, 00:56 UTC90%
30 Oct, 00:28 UTC87%
29 Oct, 23:47 UTC86%
29 Oct, 23:26 UTC89%
29 Oct, 22:57 UTC90%
29 Oct, 22:24 UTC90%
29 Oct, 21:55 UTC91%
29 Oct, 21:14 UTC92%
29 Oct, 20:46 UTC89%
29 Oct, 20:24 UTC92%
29 Oct, 19:57 UTC93%
29 Oct, 19:29 UTC93%
29 Oct, 18:13 UTC92%
29 Oct, 17:46 UTC92%
29 Oct, 17:19 UTC93%
29 Oct, 16:50 UTC93%

Your call. How does this end?

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What counts

The market resolves to "Yes" if no qualifying military action occurs between Israel and Iran through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on November 3. A qualifying action is defined as a direct air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike impacting the terrestrial territory of either country.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 99%
  • No 1%

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