Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on November 2?
Why it moved: +5 points at 09:22 UTC, after News - South China Morning Post: El Nino, weak monsoon behind Hong Kong’s warmest October in 142 years — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 12:48 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 46% |
| 1 Nov, 11:48 UTC | 45% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 09:22 UTC | 44% |
| 31 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves based on the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on November 2, 2026. You must check the official Daily Extract for the finalized minimum value in Celsius to determine if it is exactly 26°C. Readers often mistake the linked news story about October's warmth for the relevant data, but only the specific daily minimum on November 2 counts.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 44%
- No 56%
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