Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?
Why it moved: −24 points at 20:17 UTC, after The Hollywood Reporter: YouTube Premium and Music Subscribers Pass 150 Million as Ad Revenue Tops $11 Billion in Q3 — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 39% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
Alphabet must hold the third-highest market capitalization among all global companies at the end of trading on October 31, 2026. The outcome depends on the final closing prices reported by financial markets on that specific date. Readers often mistake the resolution source for a single news outlet or confuse the deadline with the date of the linked earnings report.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
Trade this market on Polymarket →