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Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability 15%
24-hour volume$12k
Total volume$27.8M
Liquidity$455k
Resolves8 Nov 2028
How the odds moved · Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0%50%100%15%19 Sept, 19:25 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now15%
26 Sept, 00:17 UTC15%
25 Sept, 16:51 UTC15%
25 Sept, 16:19 UTC15%
25 Sept, 14:16 UTC15%
25 Sept, 13:33 UTC15%
25 Sept, 13:18 UTC15%
25 Sept, 12:04 UTC15%
25 Sept, 11:48 UTC15%
25 Sept, 09:17 UTC15%
25 Sept, 08:33 UTC15%
25 Sept, 08:26 UTC15%
25 Sept, 07:42 UTC15%
25 Sept, 07:21 UTC14%
25 Sept, 06:54 UTC14%
25 Sept, 05:56 UTC14%
25 Sept, 04:56 UTC14%
25 Sept, 02:53 UTC14%
25 Sept, 00:06 UTC14%
24 Sept, 23:59 UTC14%
24 Sept, 19:56 UTC14%
24 Sept, 19:17 UTC14%
24 Sept, 09:00 UTC14%
24 Sept, 08:16 UTC14%
24 Sept, 07:31 UTC14%
24 Sept, 07:19 UTC14%
24 Sept, 06:44 UTC13%
24 Sept, 05:12 UTC13%
24 Sept, 03:20 UTC13%
24 Sept, 00:23 UTC13%
23 Sept, 23:55 UTC13%
22 Sept, 07:57 UTC13%
22 Sept, 07:17 UTC13%
22 Sept, 06:21 UTC13%
22 Sept, 05:54 UTC14%
22 Sept, 05:29 UTC14%
22 Sept, 04:59 UTC14%
21 Sept, 18:05 UTC14%
21 Sept, 17:43 UTC14%
21 Sept, 17:23 UTC14%
21 Sept, 16:56 UTC14%
21 Sept, 16:15 UTC15%
21 Sept, 15:42 UTC15%
21 Sept, 15:15 UTC15%
21 Sept, 10:58 UTC16%
21 Sept, 10:24 UTC16%
21 Sept, 09:16 UTC16%
21 Sept, 08:08 UTC16%
21 Sept, 07:28 UTC16%
21 Sept, 04:50 UTC16%
21 Sept, 03:42 UTC16%
20 Sept, 22:22 UTC16%
20 Sept, 21:46 UTC16%
20 Sept, 19:47 UTC16%
20 Sept, 19:07 UTC15%
20 Sept, 16:57 UTC15%
20 Sept, 14:15 UTC15%
20 Sept, 11:55 UTC15%
20 Sept, 11:25 UTC16%
20 Sept, 08:57 UTC15%
20 Sept, 07:53 UTC15%
20 Sept, 07:21 UTC15%
20 Sept, 04:03 UTC16%
20 Sept, 03:07 UTC16%
20 Sept, 02:47 UTC16%
20 Sept, 01:31 UTC16%
19 Sept, 22:55 UTC16%
19 Sept, 21:11 UTC16%
19 Sept, 20:40 UTC16%
19 Sept, 20:17 UTC16%
19 Sept, 19:56 UTC16%
19 Sept, 19:25 UTC16%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, based on a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases, including if he loses the nomination or withdraws before acceptance.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 15%
  • No 85%

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