NewsMarkets

Markets

Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability 41%+1
24-hour volume$318
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves5 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%50%100%41%16 Sept, 14:09 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now41%
17 Sept, 19:15 UTC41%
17 Sept, 18:43 UTC42%
17 Sept, 18:28 UTC44%
17 Sept, 17:55 UTC39%
17 Sept, 14:57 UTC40%
17 Sept, 14:09 UTC41%
16 Sept, 14:09 UTC33%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

Outcomes

  • Yes 41%
  • No 59%

Trade this market on Polymarket →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Stories on this market