Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if China’s full-year 2026 GDP growth rate falls between 5.0% and 6.0%, while No applies if it is outside that range. Readers often mistake the initial January 2027 release for the final word, but only the data from that first publication counts, not any later revisions. The deadline is the scheduled release date for the next quarter's data if the full-year figure is missing.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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