Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?
Implied probability 66%+5
24-hour volume$418
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$25k
Resolves24 Oct 2026
Why it moved: −13 points at 10:09 UTC, after BBC News: Two killed in attack on airport in eastern Saudi Arabia, authorities say — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 22 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 65% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 64% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 76% |
| 19 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 79% |
| 19 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 79% |
| 19 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 78% |
| 19 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 78% |
| 19 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 78% |
| 19 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 79% |
| 19 Oct, 00:18 UTC | 77% |
| 18 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 82% |
| 18 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 81% |
| 18 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 80% |
| 18 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 80% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 79% |
| 18 Oct, 19:38 UTC | 76% |
| 18 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 73% |
| 18 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 73% |
| 18 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 72% |
| 18 Oct, 16:38 UTC | 73% |
| 18 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 72% |
| 18 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 72% |
| 18 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 71% |
| 18 Oct, 12:41 UTC | 71% |
| 18 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 72% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 72% |
| 18 Oct, 06:09 UTC | 72% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 72% |
| 18 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 72% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 72% |
| 17 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 72% |
| 17 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 71% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 71% |
| 17 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 71% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 72% |
| 17 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 73% |
| 17 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 76% |
| 17 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 66% |
| 17 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 65% |
| 17 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 65% |
| 17 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 66% |
| 17 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 65% |
| 17 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 72% |
| 17 Oct, 03:10 UTC | 72% |
| 17 Oct, 02:17 UTC | 73% |
| 17 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 72% |
| 17 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 72% |
| 17 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 71% |
| 17 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 71% |
| 16 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 66% |
| 15 Oct, 22:30 UTC | 60% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabia’s armed forces launch a qualifying air or surface-to-surface strike that directly hits Yemen on October 23, Yemen Standard Time. It resolves to No if no such action occurs, if the strike is carried out by proxies, or if munitions are intercepted before impact.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 66%
- No 35%
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