Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 88% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Why it moved: +34 points at 23:26 UTC, after Fortune: ‘The logic points in that direction’: Drones strike a container ship off Bulgaria as attacks on NATO’s Black flank pile up — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 29 Oct, 23:26 UTC | 100% |
| 29 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 66% |
| 29 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 63% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 68% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 72% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 76% |
| 29 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 75% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 76% |
| 29 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 77% |
| 29 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 08:05 UTC | 88% |
| 29 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 84% |
| 29 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 84% |
| 27 Oct, 02:58 UTC | 83% |
| 27 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 83% |
| 26 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 84% |
| 26 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 83% |
| 26 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 83% |
| 26 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 83% |
| 26 Oct, 12:39 UTC | 82% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 83% |
| 26 Oct, 10:49 UTC | 83% |
| 26 Oct, 10:14 UTC | 81% |
| 26 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 80% |
| 26 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 79% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 80% |
| 26 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 79% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile at any location within Kyiv on October 29, 2026, according to Kyiv time. The outcome depends on the actual execution of the attack, not just threats or authorizations, and intercepted munitions still count toward a Yes resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →