Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$19.9M
Liquidity$785k
Resolves8 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Oct, 22:01 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Oct, 18:32 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 18:18 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
Ted Cruz wins if he secures and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. The market resolves to No if he does not win or accept the nomination, regardless of any later replacements before election day.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 98%
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